Collapse Was Expected — Resistance Continues: What’s Happening in Iran
World
Despite expectations that Iran’s political system would quickly collapse after the death of its supreme leader on the first day of the war, there are currently no signs that the regime is falling apart, according to BBC international correspondent Jeremy Bowen.
U.S. officials reportedly expected that Iran’s political system could rapidly begin to disintegrate after the country’s supreme leader was killed on the first day of the war. However, according to BBC international correspondent Jeremy Bowen, there is currently no evidence that the Iranian regime is collapsing.
Bowen suggests that such expectations may have been based on the idea that the system relies heavily on strong personal leadership. Donald Trump, who has often emphasized the importance of strong leaders, may have believed that the elimination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would trigger a rapid political crisis.
According to Bowen, this assumption resembles a “Venezuela-style” scenario, where the removal of a leader is expected to lead to the swift collapse of the political system. However, he argues that such thinking reflects a misunderstanding of how Iran’s power structure actually works.
Iran’s political system, Bowen notes, is built on complex institutions and a long history of resistance and hostility toward the United States and Israel.
Meanwhile, Israeli officials have openly stated that they may attempt to eliminate the new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei. Reports indicate that members of his family — including his parents, wife, and sister — were killed in an attack. However, there is no confirmed information that Mojtaba Khamenei himself was injured.
Bowen also points out that while Tehran appears to be trying to build a personality cult around the new leader, it has not used the opportunity to release new details about him.
At the same time, concern is growing among Gulf countries that the United States may have left the region with a serious crisis whose consequences regional states will ultimately have to manage.
Bowen suggests that such expectations may have been based on the idea that the system relies heavily on strong personal leadership. Donald Trump, who has often emphasized the importance of strong leaders, may have believed that the elimination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would trigger a rapid political crisis.
According to Bowen, this assumption resembles a “Venezuela-style” scenario, where the removal of a leader is expected to lead to the swift collapse of the political system. However, he argues that such thinking reflects a misunderstanding of how Iran’s power structure actually works.
Iran’s political system, Bowen notes, is built on complex institutions and a long history of resistance and hostility toward the United States and Israel.
Meanwhile, Israeli officials have openly stated that they may attempt to eliminate the new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei. Reports indicate that members of his family — including his parents, wife, and sister — were killed in an attack. However, there is no confirmed information that Mojtaba Khamenei himself was injured.
Bowen also points out that while Tehran appears to be trying to build a personality cult around the new leader, it has not used the opportunity to release new details about him.
At the same time, concern is growing among Gulf countries that the United States may have left the region with a serious crisis whose consequences regional states will ultimately have to manage.
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