Imports from Russia Could Quadruple by 2030
Economy
Russia is preparing to sharply increase gas exports to Central Asia in a bid to replace lost European markets. According to a forecast by Gazprombank, the main volume of growth will be in Uzbekistan: supplies to the republic could increase from 3 to 12 billion cubic meters per year.
The Russian gas industry is undertaking a large-scale reorientation to the east. According to data from Gazprombank's Center for Economic Forecasting, Gazprom's supplies to Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan could more than double over the next five years, reaching a total volume of 19-20 billion cubic meters per year.
According to the forecast, Uzbekistan will play the main role in this growth. Amid declining domestic production, the country could increase purchases of Russian gas fourfold – from the current 3 to 12 billion cubic meters by 2030. The situation with supplies to Kazakhstan remains less certain; however, Astana expects that the project for a transit gas pipeline from Russia to China through its territory will not only provide additional volumes but also enable the gasification of its northeastern regions.
This strategic pivot to the east is directly linked to the need to find new markets to replace volumes previously supplied to Europe. Due to sanctions, Gazprom's exports to Europe have decreased by approximately five times, and even the future launch of the Power of Siberia-2 pipeline will not be able to fully compensate for these losses. Thus, Central Asia is becoming a key direction for Russian gas expansion under new conditions.
According to the forecast, Uzbekistan will play the main role in this growth. Amid declining domestic production, the country could increase purchases of Russian gas fourfold – from the current 3 to 12 billion cubic meters by 2030. The situation with supplies to Kazakhstan remains less certain; however, Astana expects that the project for a transit gas pipeline from Russia to China through its territory will not only provide additional volumes but also enable the gasification of its northeastern regions.
This strategic pivot to the east is directly linked to the need to find new markets to replace volumes previously supplied to Europe. Due to sanctions, Gazprom's exports to Europe have decreased by approximately five times, and even the future launch of the Power of Siberia-2 pipeline will not be able to fully compensate for these losses. Thus, Central Asia is becoming a key direction for Russian gas expansion under new conditions.
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