New START expires: a world without nuclear arms control
World
On February 5, 2026, the U.S.-Russia Treaty on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (New START, SNV-III) expired, ending the last agreement that limited the nuclear arsenals of the two countries. For the first time since 1972, there is neither a current treaty nor ongoing negotiations on strategic arms control between the world’s two largest nuclear powers.
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New START was signed in 2010 by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and U.S. President Barack Obama, entered into force on February 5, 2011, and was extended in 2021 for five years. The treaty capped deployed and non-deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), heavy bombers, and nuclear warheads.
The treaty’s main value was not only in limiting arsenals but also in verification mechanisms: information exchange, mutual inspections, and a Bilateral Consultative Commission to resolve disputes. Over ten years, the parties conducted over 300 inspections and exchanged more than 25,000 notifications.
Russia suspended participation in 2023 amid the conflict in Ukraine, and the U.S. ceased sharing data on its strategic forces. Legal extension is no longer possible, and no formal agreement to maintain limits was reached.
Experts note that the expiration of New START creates a symbolic and practical vacuum in global nuclear oversight. Transparency and predictability are lost, complicating new agreements and increasing strategic uncertainty. Immediate risk escalation is limited by technical and temporal constraints on increasing deployed warheads.
Other nuclear powers — China, the U.K., and France — are not party to the bilateral framework. Their arsenals are significantly smaller but still relevant for assessing global strategic stability.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that the parties are now “free to choose their next steps,” and Russia will act “responsibly and thoughtfully,” implementing countermeasures while remaining open to political-diplomatic engagement if conditions allow.
The treaty’s main value was not only in limiting arsenals but also in verification mechanisms: information exchange, mutual inspections, and a Bilateral Consultative Commission to resolve disputes. Over ten years, the parties conducted over 300 inspections and exchanged more than 25,000 notifications.
Russia suspended participation in 2023 amid the conflict in Ukraine, and the U.S. ceased sharing data on its strategic forces. Legal extension is no longer possible, and no formal agreement to maintain limits was reached.
Experts note that the expiration of New START creates a symbolic and practical vacuum in global nuclear oversight. Transparency and predictability are lost, complicating new agreements and increasing strategic uncertainty. Immediate risk escalation is limited by technical and temporal constraints on increasing deployed warheads.
Other nuclear powers — China, the U.K., and France — are not party to the bilateral framework. Their arsenals are significantly smaller but still relevant for assessing global strategic stability.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that the parties are now “free to choose their next steps,” and Russia will act “responsibly and thoughtfully,” implementing countermeasures while remaining open to political-diplomatic engagement if conditions allow.
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