Oil shock: Europe and Asia may bear higher economic costs of the war
Economy
The military conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran has already triggered a sharp rise in oil and gas prices. Analysts say the economic burden is likely to fall more heavily on Europe and Asia, which depend more on energy imports than the United States.
Since the beginning of the conflict, Brent crude prices have risen by nearly 30%, while European gas prices have surged by about two-thirds. Analysts warn that if energy prices remain elevated, many countries could face higher inflation, reduced purchasing power and slower economic growth.
According to a study by the consulting firm Oxford Economics covering 15 economies, Italy may be the most affected country in Europe. Inflation there could end the year more than one percentage point higher than previously forecast.
Germany and the United Kingdom, both heavily dependent on imported gas, could see inflation rise by more than 0.5 percentage points. In contrast, the impact in the United States is expected to be more limited, with inflation increasing by around 0.2 percentage points.
Beyond Europe, major energy importers in Asia—including India, South Korea and China—may also face economic pressure. China imports about 70–75% of the oil it consumes, although it may increase purchases from Russia.
At the same time, some energy-exporting countries could benefit from higher prices. Nations such as Norway and Canada may gain as they are not exposed to the same supply risks faced by Middle Eastern exporters.
The United States, which became the world’s largest producer of oil and gas after the shale revolution, is expected to feel less economic pressure. However, analysts note that no country will be fully immune to the global impact of rising energy costs.
According to a study by the consulting firm Oxford Economics covering 15 economies, Italy may be the most affected country in Europe. Inflation there could end the year more than one percentage point higher than previously forecast.
Germany and the United Kingdom, both heavily dependent on imported gas, could see inflation rise by more than 0.5 percentage points. In contrast, the impact in the United States is expected to be more limited, with inflation increasing by around 0.2 percentage points.
Beyond Europe, major energy importers in Asia—including India, South Korea and China—may also face economic pressure. China imports about 70–75% of the oil it consumes, although it may increase purchases from Russia.
At the same time, some energy-exporting countries could benefit from higher prices. Nations such as Norway and Canada may gain as they are not exposed to the same supply risks faced by Middle Eastern exporters.
The United States, which became the world’s largest producer of oil and gas after the shale revolution, is expected to feel less economic pressure. However, analysts note that no country will be fully immune to the global impact of rising energy costs.
Powered by Froala Editor