Gasoline prices in Uzbekistan show harmony with world oil prices with a 1-month delay
Uzbekistan
Petrol prices in Uzbekistan are affected with delays by changes in world market prices. This situation was analysed by experts of the Institute of Macroeconomic and Regional Studies under the Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic of Uzbekistan.
According to the analysis, the change in oil prices in the world market already in 1 month is reflected in petrol prices at the national commodity exchange. For example, a 39.2% increase in oil prices in January-June 2022 led to a 22.4% increase in the average wholesale price of petrol at the exchange. In July-December 2022, a 33.2% drop in oil prices on the world market led to a 21.3% drop in wholesale prices on average.
In January-May 2023, as a result of stabilisation of prices in the world market and reduction of excise duties on AI-80 grade motor gasoline to zero rate from 10 December 2022, the average wholesale price of motor gasoline was formed in the range of 4,848─5,060 sums.
However, for June-November 2023, the average wholesale price of petrol increased from 5,315 to 5,860 sums (10.2%). During this period, the average price of oil on the world market increased by 11% (from $73 to $81).
"According to the results of econometric analysis, it was found that the average wholesale price of motor gasoline, including wholesale prices for in-demand petrol brands AI-80 and AI-92, is sensitive to oil prices on the world market. In particular, it became known that the increase in oil prices on the world market by 1% will lead to an increase in average wholesale prices of motor gasoline by 0.30% with a month delay, including AI-80 petrol - by 0.32%, and AI-92 petrol - by 0.54%," the analysis says.
At the same time, average retail prices for petrol in Tashkent are sensitive to average wholesale prices and have the same dynamics of change. In particular, a 1% increase in wholesale prices for petrol at the Republican Commodity Exchange leads to an increase in retail prices in Tashkent by 0.29%.
Due to the fact that part of the demand for oil and petrol products in Uzbekistan is covered by imports, changes in oil prices in the world market significantly affect petrol prices in the domestic market. "Thus, petrol prices in Uzbekistan move synchronously with oil prices on the world market with a delay of 1 month," the analysis summarised.
In January-May 2023, as a result of stabilisation of prices in the world market and reduction of excise duties on AI-80 grade motor gasoline to zero rate from 10 December 2022, the average wholesale price of motor gasoline was formed in the range of 4,848─5,060 sums.
However, for June-November 2023, the average wholesale price of petrol increased from 5,315 to 5,860 sums (10.2%). During this period, the average price of oil on the world market increased by 11% (from $73 to $81).
"According to the results of econometric analysis, it was found that the average wholesale price of motor gasoline, including wholesale prices for in-demand petrol brands AI-80 and AI-92, is sensitive to oil prices on the world market. In particular, it became known that the increase in oil prices on the world market by 1% will lead to an increase in average wholesale prices of motor gasoline by 0.30% with a month delay, including AI-80 petrol - by 0.32%, and AI-92 petrol - by 0.54%," the analysis says.
At the same time, average retail prices for petrol in Tashkent are sensitive to average wholesale prices and have the same dynamics of change. In particular, a 1% increase in wholesale prices for petrol at the Republican Commodity Exchange leads to an increase in retail prices in Tashkent by 0.29%.
Due to the fact that part of the demand for oil and petrol products in Uzbekistan is covered by imports, changes in oil prices in the world market significantly affect petrol prices in the domestic market. "Thus, petrol prices in Uzbekistan move synchronously with oil prices on the world market with a delay of 1 month," the analysis summarised.
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