IEA: demand for all fuels will decline by 2030
World
The slowdown in China's economic growth will have a significant impact on energy markets and reduce demand for all types of fossil fuels. This is stated in the forecast of the International Energy Agency (IEA) to 2030.
It is noted that this is the first time the agency makes such a forecast. The organisation believes that the decline in demand will occur as a result of low growth rates and the energy crisis of 2022.
China has accounted for more than one-third of the global economy over the past 10 years, as well as two-thirds of the growth in global oil consumption and one-third of the growth in global gas consumption. But the economy is now slowing: growth will not exceed 4 per cent a year until 2030, so the country's total energy demand will peak in 2025, when clean energy use will be expanded. Another one per cent decline in medium-term growth would reduce oil imports by 5 per cent and LNG imports by 20 per cent.
It is reported that oil demand has increased in recent decades, primarily due to transport. It has increased by 18 million barrels per day over 20 years and now stands at around 100 million barrels. The transport sector accounts for 45 per cent of oil consumption. However, the share of electric vehicle sales controlled by China and developed countries, which account for half of sales, is expected to reach 18 per cent this year.
The IEA estimates that transport will cease to be a source of growth in oil consumption by the end of the decade. However, demand for petrochemicals, air and sea transport will continue to grow.
China has accounted for more than one-third of the global economy over the past 10 years, as well as two-thirds of the growth in global oil consumption and one-third of the growth in global gas consumption. But the economy is now slowing: growth will not exceed 4 per cent a year until 2030, so the country's total energy demand will peak in 2025, when clean energy use will be expanded. Another one per cent decline in medium-term growth would reduce oil imports by 5 per cent and LNG imports by 20 per cent.
It is reported that oil demand has increased in recent decades, primarily due to transport. It has increased by 18 million barrels per day over 20 years and now stands at around 100 million barrels. The transport sector accounts for 45 per cent of oil consumption. However, the share of electric vehicle sales controlled by China and developed countries, which account for half of sales, is expected to reach 18 per cent this year.
The IEA estimates that transport will cease to be a source of growth in oil consumption by the end of the decade. However, demand for petrochemicals, air and sea transport will continue to grow.
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